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China Likely to Buy Nvidia’s H200 AI Chips After U.S. Eases Export Curbs, Analysts Say

China Likely to Buy Nvidia’s H200 AI Chips After U.S. Eases Export Curbs, Analysts Say

With Washington allowing controlled H200 exports, Chinese tech firms are poised to capitalise on advanced AI processors even as Beijing eyes longer-term domestic alternatives
China is expected to import Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips following recent changes to U.S. export policy that permit the high-performance processors to be sold to approved Chinese buyers under strict conditions.

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security has authorised exports of the H200 — Nvidia’s second-most-advanced AI GPU — provided that total shipments to China do not exceed fifty per cent of the volume sold to U.S. customers and that the chips are not used for military purposes.

The decision reflects a strategic recalibration by the Trump administration aimed at balancing national security considerations with the commercial interests of American technology firms and their global market share.

Analysts say Chinese artificial intelligence developers are likely to embrace the lifted curbs because the country’s domestic semiconductor industry currently lacks equivalent advanced processors.

The H200’s capabilities support demanding AI model training and computation tasks, making it attractive to companies already using compatible Nvidia architectures.

“China is behind, so the market is going to want these chips,” observed a finance professor in Shanghai, noting that the ready integration with existing frameworks makes adoption relatively straightforward.

Officials in Washington also require export compliance checks and prioritisation of U.S. supply to safeguard fit with broader security goals.

Despite the U.S. clearance, Beijing has signalled a cautious approach to actual H200 purchases.

Local authorities have reportedly instructed major technology companies to delay or restrict chip orders unless for specific research or necessary commercial use.

Some sources suggest that access may initially be limited to university research and development labs under “special circumstances,” reflecting domestic priorities to support homegrown semiconductor development and mitigate reliance on foreign hardware.

This approach highlights Beijing’s dual objective of meeting immediate computational needs while nurturing its indigenous AI chip ecosystem.

The resumption of controlled sales comes after prior export restrictions blocked Nvidia’s H200 from entering the Chinese market under national security rules, a policy set during the Biden administration and now recalibrated by President Trump’s government.

Nvidia has welcomed the policy shift, emphasising potential benefits for U.S. industry competitiveness and job creation, even as Chinese firms weigh the cost and regulatory requirements.

The move underscores the evolving technological and geopolitical dynamics shaping AI hardware trade between the United States and China, and sets the stage for how advanced semiconductor flows may interact with wider efforts to bolster domestic innovation in both countries.
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